Moody’s Ratings upgrades Iceland’s ratings to A1, changes outlook to stable
Moody’s Ratings (Moody's) has upgraded the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer ratings of the Government of Iceland to A1 from A2 and changed the outlook to stable from positive.
The key driver for the upgrade is the government’s improving fiscal metrics, which Moody´s expects to continue, with a sizeable reduction in the budget deficit and a clearly established downward trend in the government debt ratio since a recent peak in 2020. Moody’s expects the budget deficit to decline broadly in line with the government’s medium-term plans, which the rating agency considers credible.
A consensual settlement of the HF Fund’s (A2 positive) liabilities, which are included in government debt, and renewed sales of government held bank shares will likely result in additional one-off reductions in the debt ratio, in addition to an underlying declining trend. Secondly, tight monetary and fiscal policy has started to moderate elevated inflation, which supports Moody´s assessment of Iceland’s strong institutions and pro-active and well-coordinated policy stance.
Iceland's medium-term fiscal policy framework has been a credit strength, ensuring fiscal sustainability and the creation of fiscal space over time since its introduction in 2015. The fact that the authorities are now considering to replace the current balanced budget rule with an expenditure rule is credit positive, as such a change would strengthen the framework further by contributing more strongly to macroeconomic stability.
The stable outlook reflects balanced risks at the A1 rating level. Moody´s expects fiscal consolidation to continue over the coming years broadly as planned in the medium-term fiscal plan. The economy is expected to return to robust growth next year, after a temporary slowdown this year as the tight monetary and fiscal policy cool the previously overheated economy. The sovereign’s economic and fiscal metrics may improve faster than Moody´s currently expects. At the same time, Iceland remains a small and comparatively undiversified economy, sensitive to sector-specific shocks. Also, its debt ratio and debt affordability metrics remain weaker than close peers at the same rating level, making fiscal strength relatively sensitive to shocks.
The rating could be upgraded further if the government debt ratio continued to decline much faster than under Moody´s baseline assumptions and debt affordability metrics aligned with higher-rated peers. The rating could also be upgraded if the ongoing economic diversification efforts yielded stronger results in terms of reducing volatility of economic growth.
Conversely, the rating would come under downward pressure if the government deviated significantly from its medium-term fiscal plans, resulting in a material increase in the public debt ratio with no indication of a timely correction.