Fitch Affirms Iceland at ‘A’; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Iceland's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A' with a Stable Outlook.

Iceland's 'A' rating is underpinned by very high income per capita and governance indicators akin to 'AAA' and 'AA' category sovereigns. Strong fundamentals include sizeable pension fund assets, a sound banking sector, and resilient private sector balance sheets. Ample foreign reserves help mitigate Iceland's external vulnerabilities. The rating remains constrained by Iceland's small economy with limited export diversification.

Increased confidence in a sharp and sustained decline in the government debt-to-GDP ratio and higher trend growth and/or evidence of economic diversification that reduces Iceland's vulnerability to external shocks, could lead to a positive rating action.

A marked deterioration in the debt-to-GDP ratio, from a sustained period of fiscal loosening and a severe economic shock, for example, due to a sharp correction in the real estate market, could lead to a negative rating action.