Ávarp Guðmundar Inga Guðbrandssonar umhverfis- og auðindaráðherra á málþingi Loftslagsráðs og breska sendiráðsins um loftslagsmál - Ávarpið er á ensku

Hello everyone. It is great to be here at this event. Thank you for inviting me to speak. If we had not had a global pandemic this year, many of us would now be in Glasgow – or on our way to there. COP 26 was due to be a big milestone in climate affairs – and still will be, even if it has been postponed for a year.

This is because COP26 is the first big test of the Paris Agreement, that historic milestone we reached 5 years ago. States are supposed to update their goals in the light of what science tells us is needed to avert a climate catastrophe. The situation is clear. The present commitments in the Paris Agreement were a big improvement, but are not sufficient to hold temperature rise within 2°C, let alone the safer and better limit of 1,5°C. So, we all need to do better.

In Iceland, we have come a long way in just a few years. The present government came into office with a new goal of making Iceland carbon neutral before 2040. We have presented an ambitious climate action plan, intended to make sure that Iceland can reach that goal and fulfil our Paris commitments. We have for the first time put a significant amount of government funding into climate actions, including clean energy transformation in transport and nature-based solutions in reforestation and land use. And we have included actions for enhanced climate action and green growth in our measures to tackle the difficult economic situation caused by Covid-19. I think we are in a much better position now than we were just 3 years ago.

Is Iceland willing to do better? Yes. We have already stated that clearly. We have already taken steps not only to update our goals and commitments, but also the actions we need to get there. The updated Climate Action Plan that the government published last June contains actions that are intended to bring better results than our current commitments require. We have also set in place a more rigorous evaluation of climate actions, so that we are guided not by wishful thinking but by the analysis of our best experts. I therefore think Iceland is in many ways well positioned to increase our climate ambition, and to chart practical ways to get us to our goals.

Before I say more about our preparations for COP26 and our heightened ambitions, I think it would be helpful to go briefly over Iceland´s present climate goals and commitments, and what the government has done so far. The numbers and the legal arrangements regarding carbon emissions and climate goals can seem complex and even confusing; but I hope I can clarify things with the help of a few numbers and a simple illustration.

Iceland participates in a common goal of the EU and Norway. Iceland’s emissions can be split into three main tracks or components, depending on how they are dealt with under our international commitments. First, emissions and carbon uptake in land use and forestry are in a separate track; Iceland has great potential in this sector, but it is a challenge to get a more accurate measure of emissions and the gains of actions. Second, some 40% of Iceland‘s emissions, mostly in heavy industry, are part of a Europe-wide trading scheme in emissions. There the companies get targets and must reduce emissions or buy allowances within the system, which cuts overall permitted emissions every year.

Then we have emissions which are under the direct responsibility of the government; where each country gets a minimum target for emissions cuts. This system is called „effort sharing“. What emissions are there? From transport, agriculture, fisheries, waste management, small industries. In Iceland‘s case the target here is -29% to 2030 compared to 2005. This target is not unilaterally set by Iceland. It is calculated in the same way for each country in the EU and Norway under the „Effort sharing“ system taking into account its per capita wealth and ability to cut emissions. All this may seem technocratic and overly detailed, but it is important that countries have a comparable system of measuring emissions and in judging effort.

Of course, we must also look at the big picture, and not get lost in all these important details. We must aim to reduce emissions regardless of how and where they are accounted for. We should pursue carbon removal from the atmosphere by actions in land use, even if we currently have imprecise methods of measurements in some of those actions.

For the moment, I would like to focus your attention on the graph on the screen. It shows the emissions under “Effort sharing“– that is, most of Iceland‘s domestic emissions except those from land use and from heavy industry, which are regulated separately. We see that these emissions peaked in 2008 and have stayed steady in the last few years. These emissions must go down by at least 29% to 2030, according to EU regulations, which Iceland and Norway have taken up. Our updated climate action plan is designed to bring about higher cuts. Current actions are estimated to bring about 35% cuts. In addition, new and developing actions are intended to get 5-11 per cent higher achievements. These estimates come not from wishful thinking, but from expert analysis. We have greatly strengthened our efforts to estimate the gains we can get from individual climate measures. You can never accurately project how the future unfolds, but we are in a much better place with projections than a few years ago.

A few words about the Icelandic government ‘s efforts for a post-Covid reconstruction. It is very clear that we will seize the opportunity for economic recovery to ensure that it will be a green recovery. We have put increased resources into reforestation, afforestation and revegetation and into infrastructure for cleaner road transport and shipping. Also, the government is preparing for a green investment fund as part of post-Covid responses.
In my opinion, it is important that we do not recover from the crisis of this pandemic by reverting to the same old ways that were pushing us towards the existential crisis of catastrophic climate change.

Among actions are tax incentives to buy electric cars, bicycles, electric bikes and scooters; funds for infrastructure build-up; a ban on registration of new diesel and gasoline cars in 2030; various actions relating to the circular economy, forestry and restoration of various land ecosystems including wetlands – to name a few.

So, now that you are all experts in international climate regulation and accounting, and how it applies to Iceland, let us get back to the road to Glasgow and to increased climate ambition.

Is Iceland ready to enhance its ambition? To repeat what I said earlier: Yes.

We have by now a strong and well-financed instrument to reach more than current international obligations, which we did not have only three years ago. And, we will adapt this instrument, our Action Plan, to enhanced emission reduction goals.

We are also working on a road map for carbon neutrality, looking further ahead than to 2030. In this sense we are working with Green by Iceland, a co-operation between government and businesses in Iceland on how they can reach goals of carbon neutrality in 2040, or sooner for some. And we want to involve as many as possible in this work.

We plan to increase our efforts in carbon removal from the atmosphere, in addition to cutting emissions. The Carbfix method of carbon capture and mineralization is developed by Icelandic scientists and engineers and holds great promise. It captures CO2 and turns it into stone underground – not by magic but by solid physics. The Icelandic government will support the continued development of this project.

We have also increased efforts recently in carbon sequestration by a twofold increase in afforestation and a twofold increase in revegetation, and a tenfold increase in wetland restoration. This will support biodiversity and help reverse soil erosion, in addition to removing carbon from the atmosphere. Iceland has great potential in this field.

It can be frustrating that many climate actions take a long time to bear fruit. Trees grow more slowly in Iceland than in countries with a warmer climate. Clean energy transition in transport is a gradual process – we will not replace all gas guzzlers with electric cars overnight or get everyone to commute by bike or scooter.

But it is encouraging that we are already seeing some very positive signs. Electric and low-emissions cars are selling like hot cakes – only Norway seems to be beating us in this on a per capita basis. I think this is clearly to a big extent thanks to financial incentives for clean cars, and the rapid government-supported build-up of infrastructure for electric vehicles.

Last January, we implemented tax incentives for bicycles, electric bikes and scooters, that is they are now exempt from VAT. Their sales have been up by 25% on the first three quarters of this year, compared to the last. If you add up the numbers for electric bikes, scooters and electric scooters their sales have more than six folded between years.

But this is also a sign of the willingness of the Icelandic people to go along with a new clean energy revolution. We pride ourselves for being one of the few countries to enjoy almost 100% renewable energy for electricity and heating. We now have within our reach to have the third clean energy transformation – in road transport. And there are other revolutions awaiting us: In fisheries, in agriculture and in heavy vehicle transport. We sense great support from Icelandic industry, including by the initiative Green by Iceland. Many municipalities and government agencies have a climate plan, and a new legislation requires them to do so. Our NGOs push us to do more, and not least the young generation who demand from us that we hand over to them a livable planet with a future of hope.

So, yes, Iceland will go to Glasgow with a message of increased ambition and a plan to reach it. We intend to announce this shortly, as was planned before Covid-19 put a bump in our road.

Thank you.