Chairmen of the American Icelandic and Icelandic American Chambers of Commerce, distinguished speakers, honored guests.

The question being considered today is whether America is at a crossroads.

If we were to consider the last two or three centuries in our Western part of the world, we would probably find that there is hardly a single period in which academics, politicians and commentators have not proposed that their society was at some sort of crossroad.

Therefore, by analyzing contemporary discussions of each period, we might conclude that our society is more or less constantly at a crossroad – or more precisely, that it is moving across a never-ending series of new crossroads.

This may be technically true, since we are always making choices and taking decisions that might have a significant impact on our future.

But do we really know how to identify such moments in time?

I would suggest that we have a less than perfect ability to correctly identify a true turning point, a major crossroad, where our future will be defined.

As a theory worth considering, I would instead propose that we tend to overestimate our ability to predict what is going to happen, by peering into the fog and mist that is the future, and that at the same time we tend to underestimate the significance of what is actually happening in plain sight all around us.

Consider the fact, that one of the most popular books in America at the beginning of the 20^th century was called: “The Simple Life”. It predicted that society was at a crossroad, and that people would soon leave the cities and return to the countryside. – This is one of many examples of popular predictions which didn’t come true. Hindsight is easy, to be sure, but this was a bestseller which influenced even the president of the United States.

As for the tendency to underestimate the significance of what is actually happening, the most famous example is probably the way that several senior players in the digital revolution downplayed the potential of the personal computer and its relevance and usefulness for ordinary people. Even some of the persons most closely involved in that revolution did not even realize that it was happening.

There are probably some lessons to be learned here, when we try to analyze our own times.

Another thing to consider is that different generations have different perspectives.

I suspect that most of the audience clearly remembers when the gates of the Berlin Wall were thrown wide open. This was five days after my second birthday! I was five months away from being born when President Reagan called for that wall to be torn down. I’m sorry if this makes you feel old, but that’s life!

This means that thankfully I was not raised in fear of a nuclear war destroying humanity, like the generation before me. But nevertheless, I was very much aware of the crucial part that America had played in promoting security and freedom around the world, including in my own part of the world.

Just as importantly, I realized that the history of America is proof that there is no greater engine for progress and the improvement of living standards than for the people to enjoy the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

The European model – and particularly the Scandinavian model – honors these same values, but with a little less emphasis on the right to “pursue” happiness. To pursue is hard work. – So why not simply state that people have the right to life, liberty and happiness? No pursuing required! I am of course over-simplifying, but striking the ideal balance of what can be provided and what must be pursued is a constant challenge, and our Scandinavian approach clearly puts more emphasis on providing than the American approach does.

However, the common foundation for all of our endeavors is the creation of new value, and this will always rest on free enterprise. And in this respect, few countries, if any, offer more valuable lessons than the United States.

Iceland has been fortunate enough to enjoy a good relationship with the United States on many fronts, including culture, national defense, and trade.

Exports from Iceland to the US have increased steadily in recent years, measured in Icelandic krona. This is in large part due to increased exports of fresh fish, which has, in turn, partly been enabled by the increase in direct flights between our two countries.

Consumer studies show significantly increased awareness and interest in Icelandic goods among American consumers. Almost 60% say they are interested in seafood from Iceland, compared with 30% in the year 2000.

It is interesting to see that “water” comes second after seafood as the Icelandic product which U.S. consumers are most interested in, which seems to indicate opportunities for growth. And indeed, exports of water saw strong growth last year, although they are still a fairly modest part of the total.

Perhaps most importantly, these consumer studies show that the image of Iceland itself is changing dramatically, as a result of increased awareness and knowledge. Fifteen years ago, when asked what came to mind at the mention of Iceland, the overwhelming majority of Americans simply answered: Ice, snow, or cold.

This means that we were hardly on the map at all. Today, only about 40% give this answer and it is being replaced with answers such as “nature”, “pure”, “clean”, “green”, “volcanoes”, and “seafood”.

Iceland’s strong record on sustainability is clearly a competitive advantage, with our world-class management of fishing grounds, and the unique fact that all of our electricity is produced with renewable sources. This must be our selling point going forward.

More and more Americans visit Iceland, and in fact, it is Americans who have in large part driven the Icelandic tourist boom. Ten years ago, 55 thousand Americans travelled to Iceland. Last year, they were over four hundred thousand. – This March alone they were 43 thousand, or close to what recently used to be the norm during the course of a whole year.

All of the positive changes I have mentioned have been influenced by the hard work, foresight and professionalism of our Foreign Service teams, including personnel at the Embassy and Promote Iceland, as well as our business people and entrepreneurs. A healthy proportion of this group is present here today so I would like to take the opportunity to thank you for good work!

It is my sincere wish that we continue to build on the increasing trade with America. That we will strengthen the presence of our traditional exports and also that we will add new products and services through innovation.

Dear guests,

As the title of this seminar suggests, these are times of some uncertainty, but also of potential and opportunity. America is in so many ways a magnificent country, not least in the way it was founded, on principles of freedom and opportunity. It has long been an example for other nations to follow, and it is important that we continue to benefit from its leadership.

I am very interested to hear whether our speakers today feel that America is indeed at a crossroad. Whatever the case may be, I would hope that the path forward is one of increased trade and international cooperation. It is certainly one of the priorities of the government of Iceland to strengthen the relationship with the United States.

Thank you to the Icelandic American Chamber of Commerce for organizing this visit, and to the American Icelandic Chamber for organizing this seminar.

Thank you.